首页
General Theory of Employment,Interest and Money
书架
书页 | 目录
加书签

第1章
27349字

GENERALINTRODUCTION

ThisnewstandardeditionofTheCollectedWritingsofJohnMaynardKeynesformsthememorialtohimoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。HedevotedaverylargeshareofhisbusylifetotheSociety。In1911,attheageoftwenty-eight,hebecameeditoroftheEconomicJournalinsuccessiontoEdgeworth;twoyearslaterhewasmadesecretaryaswell。

Heheldtheseofficeswithoutintermittenceuntilalmosttheendofhislife。

Edgeworth,itistrue,returnedtohelphimwiththeeditorshipfrom1919to1925;MacGregortookEdgeworth'splaceuntil1934,whenAustinRobinsonsucceededhimandcontinuedtoassistKeynesdownto1945。ButthroughalltheseyearsKeyneshimselfcarriedthemajorresponsibilityandmadetheprincipaldecisionsaboutthearticlesthatweretoappearintheEconomicJournal,withoutanybreaksaveforoneortwoissueswhenhewasseriouslyillin1937。ItwasonlyafewmonthsbeforehisdeathatEaster1946thathewaselectedpresidentandhandedoverhiseditorshiptoRoyHarrodandthesecretaryshiptoAustinRobinson。

InhisdualcapacityofeditorandsecretaryKeynesplayedamajorpartinframingthepoliciesoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。ItwasverylargelyduetohimthatsomeofthemajorpublishingactivitiesoftheSociety¾Sraffa'seditionofRicardo,Stark'seditionoftheeconomicwritingsofBentham,andGuillebaud'seditionofMarshall,aswellasanumberofearlierpublicationsinthe1930s¾wereinitiated。

WhenKeynesdiedin1946itwasnaturalthattheRoyalEconomicSocietyshouldwishtocommemoratehim。ItwasperhapsequallynaturalthattheSocietychosetocommemoratehimbyproducinganeditionofhiscollectedworks。

Keyneshimselfhadalwaystakenajoyinfineprinting,andtheSociety,withthehelpofMessrsMacmillanaspublishersandtheCambridgeUniversityPressasprinters,hasbeenanxioustogiveKeynes'swritingsapermanentformthatiswhollyworthyofhim。

Thepresenteditionwillpublishasmuchasispossibleof[Pagex]THE

GENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

hisworkinthefieldofeconomics。Itwillnotincludeanyprivateandpersonalcorrespondenceorpublishlettersinthepossessionofhisfamily。Theeditionisconcerned,thatistosay,withKeynesasaneconomist。

Keynes'swritingsfallintofivebroadcategories。First,therearethebookswhichhewroteandpublishedasbooks。Second,therearecollectionsofarticlesandpamphletswhichhehimselfmadeduringhislifetime(EssaysinPersuasionandEssaysinBiography)。Third,thereisaveryconsiderablevolumeofpublishedbutuncollectedwritings¾articleswrittenfornewspapers,letterstonewspapers,articlesinjournalsthathavenotbeenincludedinhistwovolumesofcollections,andvariouspamphlets。

Fourth,thereareafewhithertounpublishedwritings。Fifth,thereiscorrespondencewitheconomistsandconcernedwitheconomicsorpublicaffairs。

ThisserieswillattempttopublishacompleterecordofKeynes'sseriouswritingasaneconomist。Itistheintentiontopublishalmostcompletelythewholeofthefirstfourcategorieslistedabove。TheonlyexceptionsareafewsyndicatedarticleswhereKeyneswrotealmostthesamematerialforpublicationindifferentnewspapersorindifferentcountries,withminorandunimportantvariations。Inthesecases,thisserieswillpublishoneonlyofthevariations,choosingthemostinteresting。

ThepublicationofKeynes'seconomiccorrespondencemustinevitablybeselective。Inthedayofthetypewriterandthefilingcabinetandparticularlyinthecaseofsoactiveandbusyaman,topublisheveryscrapofpaperthathemayhavedictatedaboutsomeunimportantorephemeralmatterisimpossible。Weareaimingtocollectandpublishasmuchaspossible,however,ofthecorrespondenceinwhichKeynesdevelopedhisownideasinargumentwithhisfelloweconomists,aswellasthemoresignificantcorrespondenceattimeswhenKeyneswasinthemiddleofpublicaffairs。

Apartfromhispublishedbooks,themainsourcesavailabletothosepreparingthisserieshavebeentwo。First,KeynesinhiswillmadeRichardKahnhisexecutorandresponsiblefor[Pagexi]GENERAL

INTRODUCTION

hiseconomicpapers。TheyhavebeenplacedintheMarshallLibraryoftheUniversityofCambridgeandhavebeenavailableforthisedition。Until1914Keynesdidnothaveasecretaryandhisearliestpapersareinthemainlimitedtodraftsofimportantlettersthathemadeinhisownhandwritingandretained。Atthatstagemostofthecorrespondencethatwepossessisrepresentedbywhathereceivedratherthanbywhathewrote。Duringtheyears1914-18and1940-46

KeyneswasservingintheTreasury。Withtheopeningofofficialrecords,manyofthepapersthathewrotehavebecomeavailable。From1919onwards,throughouttherestofhislife,Keyneshadthehelpofasecretary¾formanyyearsMrsStevens。Thusforthelasttwenty-fiveyearsofhisworkinglifewehaveinmostcasesthecarboncopiesofhisownlettersaswellastheoriginalsofthelettersthathereceived。

Therewere,ofcourse,occasionsduringthisperiodonwhichKeyneswrotehimselfinhisownhandwriting。Insomeofthesecases,withthehelpofhiscorrespondents,wehavebeenabletocollectthewholeofbothsidesofsomeimportantinterchangeandwehavebeenanxious,injusticetobothcorrespondents,toseethatbothsidesofthecorrespondencearepublishedinfull。

ThesecondmainsourceofinformationhasbeenagroupofscrapbookskeptoveraverylongperiodofyearsbyKeynes'smother,FlorenceKeynes,wifeofNevilleKeynes。From1919onwardsthesescrapbookscontainalmostthewholeofMaynardKeynes'smoreephemeralwriting,hisletterstonewspapersandagreatdealofmaterialwhichenablesonetoseenotonlywhathewrote,butthereactionofotherstohiswriting。WithouttheseverycarefullykeptscrapbooksthetaskofanyeditororbiographerofKeyneswouldhavebeenimmenselymoredifficult。

Theplanoftheedition,asatpresentintended,isthis。Itwilltotaltwenty-fivevolumes。Ofthese,thefirsteightwillbeKeynes'spublishedbooksfromIndianCurrencyandFinance,in1913,totheGeneralTheoryin1936,withtheadditionofhisTreatiseonProbability。

Therewillnextfollow,asvols。IXandx,EssaysinPersuasionandEssaysinBiography,[Pagexii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

graphy,representingKeynes'sowncollectionsofarticles。EssaysinPersuasionwilldifferfromtheoriginalprintingintworespects:

itwillcontainthefulltextsofthearticlesorpamphletsincludedinitandnot(asintheoriginalprinting)abbreviatedversionsofthesearticles,anditwillhaveaddedoneortwolaterarticleswhichareofexactlythesamecharacterasthoseincludedbyKeynesinhisoriginalcollection。InthecaseofEssaysinBiography,weshalladdoneortwootherbiographicalstudiesthatKeyneswrotelaterthan1933。

Therewillfollowfourvolumes,XItoXIV,ofeconomicarticlesandcorrespondence,andonevolumeofsocial,politicalandliterarywritings。

WeshallincludeinthesevolumessuchpartofKeynes'seconomiccorrespondenceasiscloselyassociatedwiththearticlesthatareprintedinthem。

Thefurtherninevolumes,asweestimateatpresent,willdealwithKeynes'sActivitiesduringtheyearsfromthebeginningofhispubliclifein1905untilhisdeath。Ineachoftheperiodsintowhichweproposetodividethismaterial,thevolumeconcernedwillpublishhismoreephemeralwritings,allofithithertouncollected,hiscorrespondencerelatingtotheseactivities,andsuchothermaterialandcorrespondenceasisnecessarytotheunderstandingofKeynes'sactivities。ThesevolumesarebeingeditedbyElizabethJohnsonandDonaldMoggridge,anditistheirtasktotraceandinterpretKeynes'sactivitiessufficientlytomakethematerialfullyintelligibletoalatergeneration。Untilthisworkhasprogressedfurther,itisnotpossibletosaywithexactitudewhetherthismaterialwillbedistributed,aswenowthink,overninevolumes,orwhetheritwillneedtobespreadoverafurthervolumeorvolumes。Therewillbeafinalvolumeofbibliographyandindex。

Thoseresponsibleforthiseditionhavebeen:LordKahn,bothasLordKeynes'sexecutorandasalongandintimatefriendofLordKeynes,abletohelpintheinterpretingofmuchthatwouldotherwisebemisunderstood;

SirRoyHarrodastheauthorofhisbiography;AustinRobinsonasKeynes'sco-editorontheEconomicJournalandsuccessorassecretaryoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。Theinitialeditorial[Pagexiii]GENERALINTRODUCTION

taskswerecarriedbyElizabethJohnson。MorerecentlyshehasbeenjoinedinthisresponsibilitybyDonaldMoggridge。TheyhavebeenassistedatdifferenttimesbyJaneThistlethwaite,MrsMcDonald,whowasoriginallyresponsibleforthesystematicorderingofthefilesoftheKeynespapers;

JudithMasterman,whoformanyyearsworkedwithMrsJohnsononthepapers;

andmorerecentlybySusanWilsher,MargaretButler,andBarbaraLowe。GeneralIntroduction[Pageix]

GENERALINTRODUCTION

ThisnewstandardeditionofTheCollectedWritingsofJohnMaynardKeynesformsthememorialtohimoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。HedevotedaverylargeshareofhisbusylifetotheSociety。In1911,attheageoftwenty-eight,hebecameeditoroftheEconomicJournalinsuccessiontoEdgeworth;twoyearslaterhewasmadesecretaryaswell。

Heheldtheseofficeswithoutintermittenceuntilalmosttheendofhislife。

Edgeworth,itistrue,returnedtohelphimwiththeeditorshipfrom1919to1925;MacGregortookEdgeworth'splaceuntil1934,whenAustinRobinsonsucceededhimandcontinuedtoassistKeynesdownto1945。ButthroughalltheseyearsKeyneshimselfcarriedthemajorresponsibilityandmadetheprincipaldecisionsaboutthearticlesthatweretoappearintheEconomicJournal,withoutanybreaksaveforoneortwoissueswhenhewasseriouslyillin1937。ItwasonlyafewmonthsbeforehisdeathatEaster1946thathewaselectedpresidentandhandedoverhiseditorshiptoRoyHarrodandthesecretaryshiptoAustinRobinson。

InhisdualcapacityofeditorandsecretaryKeynesplayedamajorpartinframingthepoliciesoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。ItwasverylargelyduetohimthatsomeofthemajorpublishingactivitiesoftheSociety¾Sraffa'seditionofRicardo,Stark'seditionoftheeconomicwritingsofBentham,andGuillebaud'seditionofMarshall,aswellasanumberofearlierpublicationsinthe1930s¾wereinitiated。

WhenKeynesdiedin1946itwasnaturalthattheRoyalEconomicSocietyshouldwishtocommemoratehim。ItwasperhapsequallynaturalthattheSocietychosetocommemoratehimbyproducinganeditionofhiscollectedworks。

Keyneshimselfhadalwaystakenajoyinfineprinting,andtheSociety,withthehelpofMessrsMacmillanaspublishersandtheCambridgeUniversityPressasprinters,hasbeenanxioustogiveKeynes'swritingsapermanentformthatiswhollyworthyofhim。

Thepresenteditionwillpublishasmuchasispossibleof[Pagex]THE

GENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

hisworkinthefieldofeconomics。Itwillnotincludeanyprivateandpersonalcorrespondenceorpublishlettersinthepossessionofhisfamily。Theeditionisconcerned,thatistosay,withKeynesasaneconomist。

Keynes'swritingsfallintofivebroadcategories。First,therearethebookswhichhewroteandpublishedasbooks。Second,therearecollectionsofarticlesandpamphletswhichhehimselfmadeduringhislifetime(EssaysinPersuasionandEssaysinBiography)。Third,thereisaveryconsiderablevolumeofpublishedbutuncollectedwritings¾articleswrittenfornewspapers,letterstonewspapers,articlesinjournalsthathavenotbeenincludedinhistwovolumesofcollections,andvariouspamphlets。

Fourth,thereareafewhithertounpublishedwritings。Fifth,thereiscorrespondencewitheconomistsandconcernedwitheconomicsorpublicaffairs。

ThisserieswillattempttopublishacompleterecordofKeynes'sseriouswritingasaneconomist。Itistheintentiontopublishalmostcompletelythewholeofthefirstfourcategorieslistedabove。TheonlyexceptionsareafewsyndicatedarticleswhereKeyneswrotealmostthesamematerialforpublicationindifferentnewspapersorindifferentcountries,withminorandunimportantvariations。Inthesecases,thisserieswillpublishoneonlyofthevariations,choosingthemostinteresting。

ThepublicationofKeynes'seconomiccorrespondencemustinevitablybeselective。Inthedayofthetypewriterandthefilingcabinetandparticularlyinthecaseofsoactiveandbusyaman,topublisheveryscrapofpaperthathemayhavedictatedaboutsomeunimportantorephemeralmatterisimpossible。Weareaimingtocollectandpublishasmuchaspossible,however,ofthecorrespondenceinwhichKeynesdevelopedhisownideasinargumentwithhisfelloweconomists,aswellasthemoresignificantcorrespondenceattimeswhenKeyneswasinthemiddleofpublicaffairs。

Apartfromhispublishedbooks,themainsourcesavailabletothosepreparingthisserieshavebeentwo。First,KeynesinhiswillmadeRichardKahnhisexecutorandresponsiblefor[Pagexi]GENERAL

INTRODUCTION

hiseconomicpapers。TheyhavebeenplacedintheMarshallLibraryoftheUniversityofCambridgeandhavebeenavailableforthisedition。Until1914Keynesdidnothaveasecretaryandhisearliestpapersareinthemainlimitedtodraftsofimportantlettersthathemadeinhisownhandwritingandretained。Atthatstagemostofthecorrespondencethatwepossessisrepresentedbywhathereceivedratherthanbywhathewrote。Duringtheyears1914-18and1940-46

KeyneswasservingintheTreasury。Withtheopeningofofficialrecords,manyofthepapersthathewrotehavebecomeavailable。From1919onwards,throughouttherestofhislife,Keyneshadthehelpofasecretary¾formanyyearsMrsStevens。Thusforthelasttwenty-fiveyearsofhisworkinglifewehaveinmostcasesthecarboncopiesofhisownlettersaswellastheoriginalsofthelettersthathereceived。

Therewere,ofcourse,occasionsduringthisperiodonwhichKeyneswrotehimselfinhisownhandwriting。Insomeofthesecases,withthehelpofhiscorrespondents,wehavebeenabletocollectthewholeofbothsidesofsomeimportantinterchangeandwehavebeenanxious,injusticetobothcorrespondents,toseethatbothsidesofthecorrespondencearepublishedinfull。

ThesecondmainsourceofinformationhasbeenagroupofscrapbookskeptoveraverylongperiodofyearsbyKeynes'smother,FlorenceKeynes,wifeofNevilleKeynes。From1919onwardsthesescrapbookscontainalmostthewholeofMaynardKeynes'smoreephemeralwriting,hisletterstonewspapersandagreatdealofmaterialwhichenablesonetoseenotonlywhathewrote,butthereactionofotherstohiswriting。WithouttheseverycarefullykeptscrapbooksthetaskofanyeditororbiographerofKeyneswouldhavebeenimmenselymoredifficult。

Theplanoftheedition,asatpresentintended,isthis。Itwilltotaltwenty-fivevolumes。Ofthese,thefirsteightwillbeKeynes'spublishedbooksfromIndianCurrencyandFinance,in1913,totheGeneralTheoryin1936,withtheadditionofhisTreatiseonProbability。

Therewillnextfollow,asvols。IXandx,EssaysinPersuasionandEssaysinBiography,[Pagexii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

graphy,representingKeynes'sowncollectionsofarticles。EssaysinPersuasionwilldifferfromtheoriginalprintingintworespects:

itwillcontainthefulltextsofthearticlesorpamphletsincludedinitandnot(asintheoriginalprinting)abbreviatedversionsofthesearticles,anditwillhaveaddedoneortwolaterarticleswhichareofexactlythesamecharacterasthoseincludedbyKeynesinhisoriginalcollection。InthecaseofEssaysinBiography,weshalladdoneortwootherbiographicalstudiesthatKeyneswrotelaterthan1933。

Therewillfollowfourvolumes,XItoXIV,ofeconomicarticlesandcorrespondence,andonevolumeofsocial,politicalandliterarywritings。

WeshallincludeinthesevolumessuchpartofKeynes'seconomiccorrespondenceasiscloselyassociatedwiththearticlesthatareprintedinthem。

Thefurtherninevolumes,asweestimateatpresent,willdealwithKeynes'sActivitiesduringtheyearsfromthebeginningofhispubliclifein1905untilhisdeath。Ineachoftheperiodsintowhichweproposetodividethismaterial,thevolumeconcernedwillpublishhismoreephemeralwritings,allofithithertouncollected,hiscorrespondencerelatingtotheseactivities,andsuchothermaterialandcorrespondenceasisnecessarytotheunderstandingofKeynes'sactivities。ThesevolumesarebeingeditedbyElizabethJohnsonandDonaldMoggridge,anditistheirtasktotraceandinterpretKeynes'sactivitiessufficientlytomakethematerialfullyintelligibletoalatergeneration。Untilthisworkhasprogressedfurther,itisnotpossibletosaywithexactitudewhetherthismaterialwillbedistributed,aswenowthink,overninevolumes,orwhetheritwillneedtobespreadoverafurthervolumeorvolumes。Therewillbeafinalvolumeofbibliographyandindex。

Thoseresponsibleforthiseditionhavebeen:LordKahn,bothasLordKeynes'sexecutorandasalongandintimatefriendofLordKeynes,abletohelpintheinterpretingofmuchthatwouldotherwisebemisunderstood;

SirRoyHarrodastheauthorofhisbiography;AustinRobinsonasKeynes'sco-editorontheEconomicJournalandsuccessorassecretaryoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。Theinitialeditorial[Pagexiii]GENERALINTRODUCTION

taskswerecarriedbyElizabethJohnson。MorerecentlyshehasbeenjoinedinthisresponsibilitybyDonaldMoggridge。TheyhavebeenassistedatdifferenttimesbyJaneThistlethwaite,MrsMcDonald,whowasoriginallyresponsibleforthesystematicorderingofthefilesoftheKeynespapers;

JudithMasterman,whoformanyyearsworkedwithMrsJohnsononthepapers;

andmorerecentlybySusanWilsher,MargaretButler,andBarbaraLowe。EditorialIntroduction[Pagexv]

EDITORIALINTRODUCTION

'Ihavebeenmuchpre-occupiedwiththecausation,sotospeak,ofmyprogressofmindfromtheclassicalpositiontomypresentviews,¾withtheorderinwhichtheproblemdevelopedinmymind。WhatsomepeopletreatasanunnecessarilycontroversialtoneisreallyduetotheimportanceinmyownmindofwhatIusedtobelieve,andofthemomentsoftransitionwhichwereformepersonallymomentsofillumination……Youdon'tmentioneffectivedemandor,moreprecisely,thedemandscheduleforoutputasawhole,exceptinsofarasitisimplicitinthemultiplier。Tome,regardedhistorically,themostextraordinarythingisthecompletedisappearanceofthetheoryofdemandandsupplyforoutputasawhole,i。e。thetheoryofemployment,afterithadbeenforaquarterofacenturythemostdiscussedthingineconomics。Oneofthemostimportanttransitionsforme,aftermyTreatiseonMoneyhadbeenpublished,wassuddenlyrealisingthis。ItonlycameafterIhadenunciatedtomyselfthepsychologicallawthat,whenincomeincreases,thegapbetweenincomeandconsumptionwillincrease,¾aconclusionofvastimportancetomyownthinkingbutnotapparently,expressedjustlikethat,toanyoneelse's。Then,appreciablylater,camethenotionofinterestbeingthemeasureofliquiditypreference,whichbecamequiteclearinmymindthemomentIthoughtofit。Andlastofall,afteranimmenselotofmuddlingandmanydrafts,theproperdefinitionofthemarginalefficiencyofcapitallinkeduponethingwithanother。'

Withthesewords,KeynestoldR。F。Harrodinthesummerof1936thedevelopmentofhisideastowardstheGeneralTheory。'[1]

TheoriginsoftheGeneralTheorylieinKeynes'sdissatisfactionwithhisTreatiseonMoneyevenatthetimeofpublication[2],intheprolongedinternationalslumpoftheyears[Pagexvi]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

after1929,andinthestimulationthatemanatedfroma'circus'ofyoungCambridgeeconomistswhobeganmeetingsoonafterthepublicationoftheTreatisetodiscussanddissectitstwovolumes。Itwasthediscussionswithinthisgroup,retailedtohimbyRichardKahn,thatprovidedthebasisforthefirsttransitionalstagebetweentheTreatiseandtheGeneralTheory。'[3]

ThisstagewassoonfollowedbyKeynes'sexplicitcommitmenttorevisethetheoreticalfoundationsoftheTreatise,whichhadonlydealtincidentallyintermsofmovementsinoutput。ThusinhisprefaceforJapanesereadersoftheTreatise,datedApril1932,KeynesnotedthatratherthanrevisehisTreatiseheproposed'topublishashortbookofapurelytheoreticalcharacter,extendingandcorrectingthetheoreticalbasisofmyviewsassetforthinBooksIIIandIV'。[4]Thiscommitmentbecameclearerintheautumnof1932,whenKeyneschangedthetitleofhiscourseoflecturesfrom'ThePureTheoryofMoney',theirtitlesincetheautumnof1929,to'TheMonetaryTheoryofProduction',thetitletheyweretohaveuntil1934。Theselectureswereconcernedwithmovementsinoutputasawholeandhadthebeginningsoftheconceptofliquiditypreference,althoughitwasnotuntilhislecturesintheautumnof1933thatittooktheformusedintheGeneralTheory。

ThefirstmajorpublishedindicationsofthedirectionKeynes'sthoughtwastakingbetweentheTreatiseandtheGeneralTheorycamein1933intheformofanessay'TheMonetaryTheoryofProduction',apamphlet'TheMeanstoProsperity',anarticle'TheMultiplier'(whichisincludedintheAmericaneditionof'TheMeanstoProsperity'),andabiographicalsketchofT。R。Malthus,[5]allofwhicharecastintermsofmovementsofoutputasawholeandreflecteddissatisfactionwithacceptedtheory。

ThusthemajorbuildingblocksoftheGeneralTheoryhad[Pagexvii]EDITORIALINTRODUCTION

beensteadilyaccumulatingeversince1931。Bythespringof1934,infact,allofthemwereinplace,exceptfortheideaofthemarginalefficiencyofcapital,asisclearfromdraftsfromthatperiodandaworkingpaperKeynespreparedduringhisVisittoAmericainMayandJune。[6]Itwasonlyduringthesummerof1934,however,thatthefinalpiecefellintoplace,andbytheautumnKeyneswasdeliveringhislectures,nowentitled'TheGeneralTheoryofEmployment'fromproofsheets。

However,beforepublicationtherewastobeanotheryearofintensediscussionandredrafting。KeynescirculatedproofsofthebooktoR。F。

Kahn,JoanRobinson,R。F。Harrod,D。H。RobertsonandR。G。Hawtreyandtookcarefulnoteoftheircommentsandsuggestedimprovements,statingclearlyhispointsofdisagreementwhenhedidnotadoptthem。[7]ThusitwasafteralmostfiveyearsofintensepreparationthatthebookappearedinFebruary1936atapriceof5shillingstoencouragealargesaleamongstudents。

Afterpublicationtherewasstillfurtherdiscussionand,occasionally,controversy。Keyneshimselfencouragedthisdiscussion,for,asheputit[8]

IammoreattachedtothecomparativelysimplefundamentalideaswhichunderliemytheorythantotheparticularformsinwhichIhaveembodiedthem,andhavenodesirethatthelattershouldbecrystallizedatthepresentstageofthedebate。Ifthesimplebasicideascanbecomefamiliarandacceptable,timeandexperienceandthecollaborationofanumberofmindswilldiscoverthebestwayofexpressingthem。

Inthisspirit,Keynesenteredintoconsiderablecorrespondencewithcritics,expositorsandextendersofhisideas。[9]Moreover,asthedebateprogressed,hisownideaswerechangingandbyAugust1936hewaswritingtoR。G。Hawtrey[10]

[Pagexviii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

ImaymentionthatIamthinkingofproducinginthecourseofthenextyearorsowhatmightbecalledfootnotestomypreviousbook,dealingwithvariouscriticismsandvariouspointswhichwantcarryingfurther。

Ofcourse,infact,thewholebookwantsre-writingandrecasting。ButIamstillnotinasufficientlychangedstateofmindasyettobeinthepositiontodothat。OntheotherhandIcandealwithspecificpoints。

Fromthisperiod,wehaveonedrafttableofcontentstoabookentitledFootnotestoTheGeneralTheoryofEmploymentInterestandMoney,atitlethatechoeshisfirstdrafttableofcontentsafterEconomicConsequencesofthePeace。[11]HealsousedthistitleforthelectureshedeliveredinCambridgeinthespringof1937,fromwhichdraftsoftwolecturessurvive。[12]InfactheseemstohavebeenmakingconsiderableprogresstowardssteppingoutsidetheGeneralTheorybythattime,forhetoldJoanRobinsoninApril1937[13]

Iamgraduallygettingmyselfintoanoutsidepositiontowardsthebook,andamfeelingmywaytonewlinesofexposition。PerhapsyouwillseewhatIhaveinmindinmyforthcominglectures。

Unfortunately,theproposed'footnotes'nevergotbeyondthelectures,forKeynessufferedasevereheartattackintheearlysummerof1937andwasneverabletoworkatanythingnearhisoldpaceuntilwarcamein1939¾andthenhisenergiesweredirectedinotherdirections。HowhewouldhaverevisedtheGeneralTheoryifhehadremainedingoodhealthisimpossibletoguess。Onecanonlybecertainthathewouldhaverevisedit。

SinceitspublicationinBritaininFebruary1936,theGeneralTheoryhasbeenpublishedintheUnitedStates(originallyfromsheetsprintedinEngland)andtranslatedintoGerman,Japanese,French,Spanish,Czech,Italian,Serbo-Croat,Hindi,Finnish,Roumanian,HungarianandRussian。

TheGerman,FrenchandJapaneseeditionsallcarriedspecialadditionalprefaceswhichfollowedtheoriginalEnglishpreface。Theseadditionalprefacesareprintedbelow。

[Pagexix]EDITORIALINTRODUCTION

ThiseditionfollowsthereprintedEnglishfirstedition,whichdiffersfromthefirstEnglishprintinginthatacorrectiontolines23-5

ofpage123wasmovedfromanerratumnotefollowingtheindexintothetextandcorrectionsweremadetopages44,113,176,357。InAppendixIwehaveintroducedalistofminortextualcorrectionsfromthereprintedfirstedition。Inaddition,inAppendices2and3wereprintKeynes'sarticles'FluctuationsinNetInvestmentintheUnitedStates'and'RelativeMovementsofRealWagesandOutput'whichdealwitherrorsonpages103-4

and9-10respectivelyofthetextitself。ForfurtherdiscussionoftheGeneralTheoryanditsgenesis,thereaderisreferredtovolumesxiiiandxiv。

Inprintingthisvolumewehavemadeitourfirstobjectivetofollowaspreciselyaspossiblethepaginationoftheoriginaledition。Animmenseliteratureofdetailedcriticismandanalysishasgrownuparoundthetextoftheoriginaleditionandwehavebeenanxiousthatreferencesinthatliteratureshouldapplyequallytothisnewedition。Thishasmeantthatwehavebeenunabletofollowpreciselythestandardtypographyoftheothervolumesintheseries。Thegainofreadyreference,inourview,justifiesthiscourse。Asinothervolumesoftheseries,wehavereducedtheexcessivecapitalisationfavouredbyKeynes'soriginalprinters,butirritatingtoamoderneye。

Preface[Pagexxi]

PREFACE

Thisbookischieflyaddressedtomyfelloweconomists。Ihopethatitwillbeintelligibletoothers。Butitsmainpurposeistodealwithdifficultquestionsoftheory,andonlyinthesecondplacewiththeapplicationsofthistheorytopractice。Foriforthodoxeconomicsisatfault,theerroristobefoundnotinthesuperstructure,whichhasbeenerectedwithgreatcareforlogicalconsistency,butinalackofclearnessandofgeneralityinthepremisses。ThusIcannotachievemyobjectofpersuadingeconomiststore-examinecriticallycertainoftheirbasicassumptionsexceptbyahighlyabstractargumentandalsobymuchcontroversy。Iwishtherecouldhavebeenlessofthelatter。ButIhavethoughtitimportant,notonlytoexplainmyownpointofview,butalsotoshowinwhatrespectsitdepartsfromtheprevailingtheory。Those,whoarestronglyweddedtowhatIshallcall'theclassicaltheory',willfluctuate,Iexpect,betweenabeliefthatIamquitewrongandabeliefthatIamsayingnothingnew。

Itisforotherstodetermineifeitheroftheseorthethirdalternativeisright。Mycontroversialpassagesareaimedatprovidingsomematerialforananswer;andImustaskforgivenessIf,inthepursuitofsharpdistinctions,mycontroversyisitselftookeen。ImyselfheldwithconvictionformanyyearsthetheorieswhichInowattack,andIamnot,Ithink,ignorantoftheirstrongpoints。

Themattersatissueareofanimportancewhichcannotbeexaggerated。

But,ifmyexplanationsareright,itismyfelloweconomists,notthegeneralpublic,whomImustfirstconvince。Atthisstageoftheargumentthegeneralpublic,thoughwelcomeatthedebate,areonlyeavesdroppersatanattemptbyaneconomisttobringtoanissuethedeepdivergencesofopinionbetweenfelloweconomistswhichhaveforthetimebeingalmostdestroyedthepracticalinfluenceofeconomictheory,andwill,untiltheyareresolved,continuetodoso。

TherelationbetweenthisbookandmyTreatiseonMoney[Pagexxii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

[JMKvols。vandvi],whichIpublishedfiveyearsago,isprobablyclearertomyselfthanitwillbetoothers;andwhatinmyownmindisanaturalevolutioninalineofthoughtwhichIhavebeenpursuingforseveralyears,maysometimesstrikethereaderasaconfusingchangeofview。ThisdifficultyisnotmadelessbycertainchangesinterminologywhichIhavefeltcompelledtomake。ThesechangesoflanguageIhavepointedoutinthecourseofthefollowingpages;butthegeneralrelationshipbetweenthetwobookscanbeexpressedbrieflyasfollows。WhenIbegantowritemyTreatiseonMoneyIwasstillmovingalongthetraditionallinesofregardingtheinfluenceofmoneyassomethingsotospeakseparatefromthegeneraltheoryofsupplyanddemand。WhenIfinishedit,Ihadmadesomeprogresstowardspushingmonetarytheorybacktobecomingatheoryofoutputasawhole。Butmylackofemancipationfrompreconceivedideasshoweditselfinwhatnowseemstometobetheoutstandingfaultofthetheoreticalpartsofthatwork(namely,BooksIIIandIV),thatIfailedtodealthoroughlywiththeeffectsofchangesinthelevelofoutput。

Myso-called'fundamentalequationswereaninstantaneouspicturetakenontheassumptionofagivenoutput。Theyattemptedtoshowhow,assumingthegivenoutput,forcescoulddevelopwhichinvolvedaprofit-disequilibrium,andthusrequiredachangeinthelevelofoutput。Butthedynamicdevelopment,asdistinctfromtheinstantaneouspicture,wasleftincompleteandextremelyconfused。Thisbook,ontheotherhand,hasevolvedintowhatisprimarilyastudyoftheforceswhichdeterminechangesinthescaleofoutputandemploymentasawhole;and,whilstitisfoundthatmoneyentersintotheeconomicschemeinanessentialandpeculiarmanner,technicalmonetarydetailfallsintothebackground。Amonetaryeconomy,weshallfind,isessentiallyoneinwhichchangingviewsaboutthefuturearecapableofinfluencingthequantityofemploymentandnotmerelyitsdirection。Butourmethodofanalysingtheeconomicbehaviourofthepresentundertheinfluenceofchangingideasaboutthefutureisonewhichdependsontheinteractionofsupplyanddemand,andisin[Pagexxiii]PREFACE

thiswaylinkedupwithourfundamentaltheoryofvalue。Wearethusledtoamoregeneraltheory,whichincludestheclassicaltheorywithwhichwearefamiliar,asaspecialcase。

Thewriterofabooksuchasthis,treadingalongunfamiliarpaths,isextremelydependentoncriticismandconversationifheistoavoidanundueproportionofmistakes。Itisastonishingwhatfoolishthingsonecantemporarilybelieveifonethinkstoolongalone,particularlyineconomics(alongwiththeothermoralsciences),whereitisoftenimpossibletobringone'sideastoaconclusivetesteitherformalorexperimental。

Inthisbook,evenmoreperhapsthaninwritingmyTreatiseonMoney,IhavedependedontheconstantadviceandconstructivecriticismofMrR。F。Kahn。Thereisagreatdealinthisbookwhichwouldnothavetakentheshapeithasexceptathissuggestion。IhavealsohadmuchhelpfromMrsJoanRobinson,MrR。G。HawtreyandMrR。F。Harrod,whohavereadthewholeoftheproof-sheets。TheindexhasbeencompiledbyMrD。M。Bensusan-ButtofKing'sCollege,Cambridge。

Thecompositionofthisbookhasbeenfortheauthoralongstruggleofescape,andsomustthereadingofitbeformostreadersiftheauthor'sassaultuponthemistobesuccessful,¾astruggleofescapefromhabitualmodesofthoughtandexpression。Theideaswhicharehereexpressedsolaboriouslyareextremelysimpleandshouldbeobvious。Thedifficultylies,notinthenewideas,butinescapingfromtheoldones,whichramify,forthosebroughtupasmostofushavebeen,intoeverycornerofourminds。

J。M。KEYNES

13December1935

PrefacetoJapaneseEdition[Pagexxix]

PREFACETOTHEJAPANESEEDITION

AlfredMarshall,onwhosePrinciplesofEconomicsallcontemporaryEnglisheconomistshavebeenbroughtup,wasatparticularpainstoemphasisethecontinuityofhisthoughtwithRicardo's。HisworklargelyconsistedingraftingthemarginalprincipleandtheprincipleofsubstitutionontotheRicardiantradition;andhistheoryofoutputandconsumptionasawhole,asdistinctfromhistheoryoftheproductionanddistributionofagivenoutput,wasneverseparatelyexpounded。Whetherhehimselffelttheneedofsuchatheory,Iamnotsure。Buthisimmediatesuccessorsandfollowershavecertainlydispensedwithitandhavenot,apparently,feltthelackofit。ItwasinthisatmospherethatIwasbroughtup。I

taughtthesedoctrinesmyselfanditisonlywithinthelastdecadethatIhavebeenconsciousoftheirinsufficiency。Inmyownthoughtanddevelopment,therefore,thisbookrepresentsareaction,atransitionawayfromtheEnglishclassical(ororthodox)tradition。MyemphasisuponthisinthefollowingpagesanduponthepointsofmydivergencefromreceiveddoctrinehasbeenregardedinsomequartersinEnglandasundulycontroversial。

ButhowcanonebroughtupinEnglisheconomicorthodoxy,indeedapriestofthatfaithatonetime,avoidsomecontroversialemphasis,whenhefirstbecomesaProtestant?

PerhapsJapanesereaders,however,willneitherrequirenorresistmyassaultsagainsttheEnglishtradition。WearewellawareofthelargescaleonwhichEnglisheconomicwritingsarereadinJapan,butwearenotsowellinformedastohowJapaneseopinionsregardthem。TherecentpraiseworthyenterpriseonthepartoftheInternationalEconomicCircleofTokyoinreprintingMalthus's'PrinciplesofPoliticalEconomy'asthefirstvolumeintheTokyoSeriesofReprintsencouragesmetothinkthatabookwhichtracesitsdescentfromMalthusratherthanRicardomaybereceivedwithsympathyinsomequartersatleast。

[Pagexxx]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

AtanyrateIamgratefultotheOrientalEconomistformakingitpossibleformetoapproachJapanesereaderswithouttheextrahandicapofaforeignlanguage。

J。M。KEYNES

4December1936

PrefacetoGermanEdition[Pagexxv]

PREFACETOTHEGERMANEDITION

AlfredMarshall,onwhosePrinciplesofEconomicsallcontemporaryEnglisheconomistshavebeenbroughtup,wasatparticularpainstoemphasisethecontinuityofhisthoughtwithRicardo's。HisworklargelyconsistedingraftingthemarginalprincipleandtheprincipleofsubstitutionontotheRicardiantradition;andhistheoryofoutputandconsumptionasawhole,asdistinctfromhistheoryoftheproductionanddistributionofagivenoutput,wasneverseparatelyexpounded。Whetherhehimselffelttheneedofsuchatheory,Iamnotsure。Buthisimmediatesuccessorsandfollowershavecertainlydispensedwithitandhavenot,apparently,feltthelackofit。ItwasinthisatmospherethatIwasbroughtup。I

taughtthesedoctrinesmyselfanditisonlywithinthelastdecadethatIhavebeenconsciousoftheirinsufficiency。Inmyownthoughtanddevelopment,therefore,thisbookrepresentsareaction,atransitionawayfromtheEnglishclassical(ororthodox)tradition。MyemphasisuponthisinthefollowingpagesanduponthepointsofmydivergencefromreceiveddoctrinehasbeenregardedinsomequartersinEnglandasundulycontroversial。

ButhowcanonebroughtupaCatholicinEnglisheconomics,indeedapriestofthatfaith,avoidsomecontroversialemphasis,whenhefirstbecomesaProtestant?

ButIfancythatallthismayimpressGermanreaderssomewhatdifferently。

Theorthodoxtradition,whichruledinnineteenthcenturyEngland,nevertooksofirmaholdofGermanthought。TherehavealwaysexistedimportantschoolsofeconomistsinGermanywhohavestronglydisputedtheadequacyoftheclassicaltheoryfortheanalysisofcontemporaryevents。TheManchesterSchoolandMarxismbothderiveultimatelyfromRicardo,¾aconclusionwhichisonlysuperficiallysurprising。ButinGermanytherehasalwaysexistedalargesectionofopinionwhichhasadheredneithertotheonenortotheother。

Itcanscarcelybeclaimed,however,thatthisschoolof[Pagexxvi]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

thoughthaserectedarivaltheoreticalconstruction;orhasevenattemptedtodoso。Ithasbeensceptical,realistic,contentwithhistoricalandempiricalmethodsandresults,whichdiscardformalanalysis。ThemostimportantunorthodoxdiscussionontheoreticallineswasthatofWicksell。

HisbookswereavailableinGerman(astheywerenot,untillately,inEnglish);indeedoneofthemostimportantofthemwaswritteninGerman。

ButhisfollowerswerechieflySwedesandAustrians,thelatterof。whomcombinedhisideaswithspecificallyAustriantheorysoastobringthemineffect,backagaintowardstheclassicaltradition。ThusGermany,quitecontrarytoherhabitinmostofthesciences,hasbeencontentforawholecenturytodowithoutanyformaltheoryofeconomicswhichwaspredominantandgenerallyaccepted。

Perhaps,therefore,ImayexpectlessresistancefromGerman,thanfromEnglish,readersinofferingatheoryofemploymentandoutputasawhole,whichdepartsinimportantrespectsfromtheorthodoxtradition。ButcanIhopetoovercomeGermany'seconomicagnosticism?CanIpersuadeGermaneconomiststhatmethodsofformalanalysishavesomethingimportanttocontributetotheinterpretationofcontemporaryeventsandtothemouldingofcontemporarypolicy?Afterall,itisGermantolikeatheory。HowhungryandthirstyGermaneconomistsmustfeelafterhavinglivedalltheseyearswithoutone!Certainly,itisworthwhileformetomaketheattempt。AndifIcancontributesomestraymorselstowardsthepreparationbyGermaneconomistsofafullrepastoftheorydesignedtomeetspecificallyGermanconditions,Ishallbecontent。ForIconfessthatmuchofthefollowingbookisillustratedandexpoundedmainlywithreferencetotheconditionsexistingintheAnglo-Saxoncountries。

Neverthelessthetheoryofoutputasawhole,whichiswhatthefollowingbookpurportstoprovide,ismuchmoreeasilyadaptedtotheconditionsofatotalitarianstate,thanisthetheoryoftheproductionanddistributionofagivenoutputproducedunderconditionsoffreecompetitionandalargemeasureoflaissez-faire。Thetheoryofthepsychologi-

[Pagexxvii]PREFACETOTHEGERMANEDITION

callawsrelatingconsumptionandsaving,theinfluenceofloanexpenditureonpricesandrealwages,thepartplayedbytherateofinterest¾theseremainasnecessaryingredientsinourschemeofthought。

ItakethisopportunitytoacknowledgemyindebtednesstotheexcellentworkofmytranslatorHerrWaeger(Ihopehisvocabularyattheendofthisvolume[14]mayproveusefulbeyonditsimmediatepurpose)andtomypublishers,MessrsDunckerandHumblot,whoseenterprise,fromthedaysnowsixteenyearsagowhentheypublishedmyEconomicConsequencesofthePeace,hasenabledmetomaintaincontactwithGermanreaders。

J。M。KEYNES

7September1936

PrefacetoJapaneseEdition[Pagexxix]

PREFACETOTHEJAPANESEEDITION

AlfredMarshall,onwhosePrinciplesofEconomicsallcontemporaryEnglisheconomistshavebeenbroughtup,wasatparticularpainstoemphasisethecontinuityofhisthoughtwithRicardo's。HisworklargelyconsistedingraftingthemarginalprincipleandtheprincipleofsubstitutionontotheRicardiantradition;andhistheoryofoutputandconsumptionasawhole,asdistinctfromhistheoryoftheproductionanddistributionofagivenoutput,wasneverseparatelyexpounded。Whetherhehimselffelttheneedofsuchatheory,Iamnotsure。Buthisimmediatesuccessorsandfollowershavecertainlydispensedwithitandhavenot,apparently,feltthelackofit。ItwasinthisatmospherethatIwasbroughtup。I

taughtthesedoctrinesmyselfanditisonlywithinthelastdecadethatIhavebeenconsciousoftheirinsufficiency。Inmyownthoughtanddevelopment,therefore,thisbookrepresentsareaction,atransitionawayfromtheEnglishclassical(ororthodox)tradition。MyemphasisuponthisinthefollowingpagesanduponthepointsofmydivergencefromreceiveddoctrinehasbeenregardedinsomequartersinEnglandasundulycontroversial。

ButhowcanonebroughtupinEnglisheconomicorthodoxy,indeedapriestofthatfaithatonetime,avoidsomecontroversialemphasis,whenhefirstbecomesaProtestant?

PerhapsJapanesereaders,however,willneitherrequirenorresistmyassaultsagainsttheEnglishtradition。WearewellawareofthelargescaleonwhichEnglisheconomicwritingsarereadinJapan,butwearenotsowellinformedastohowJapaneseopinionsregardthem。TherecentpraiseworthyenterpriseonthepartoftheInternationalEconomicCircleofTokyoinreprintingMalthus's'PrinciplesofPoliticalEconomy'asthefirstvolumeintheTokyoSeriesofReprintsencouragesmetothinkthatabookwhichtracesitsdescentfromMalthusratherthanRicardomaybereceivedwithsympathyinsomequartersatleast。

[Pagexxx]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

AtanyrateIamgratefultotheOrientalEconomistformakingitpossibleformetoapproachJapanesereaderswithouttheextrahandicapofaforeignlanguage。

J。M。KEYNES

4December1936

PrefacetoFrenchEdition[Pagexxxi]

PREFACETOTHEFRENCHEDITION

Forahundredyearsorlonger,EnglishPoliticalEconomyhasbeendominatedbyanorthodoxy。Thatisnottosaythatanunchangingdoctrinehasprevailed。

Onthecontrary。Therehasbeenaprogressiveevolutionofthedoctrine。

Butitspresuppositions,itsatmosphere,itsmethodhaveremainedsurprisinglythesame,andaremarkablecontinuityhasbeenobservablethroughallthechanges。Inthatorthodoxy,inthatcontinuoustransition,Iwasbroughtup。Ilearntit,Itaughtit,Iwroteit。TothoselookingfromoutsideIprobablystillbelongtoit。Subsequenthistoriansofdoctrinewillregardthisbookasinessentiallythesametradition。ButImyselfinwritingit,andinotherrecentworkwhichhasleduptoit,havefeltmyselftobebreakingawayfromthisorthodoxy,tobeinstrongreactionagainstit,tobeescapingfromsomething,tobegaininganemancipation。Andthisstateofmindonmypartistheexplanationofcertainfaultsinthebook,inparticularitscontroversialnoteinsomepassages,anditsairofbeingaddressedtoomuchtotheholdersofaparticularpointofviewandtoolittleadurbemetorbem。Iwaswantingtoconvincemyownenvironmentanddidnotaddressmyselfwithsufficientdirectnesstooutsideopinion。

Nowthreeyearslater,havinggrownaccustomedtomynewskinandhavingalmostforgottenthesmellofmyoldone,Ishould,ifIwerewritingafresh,endeavourtofreemyselffromthisfaultandstatemyownpositioninamoreclear-cutmanner。

Isayallthis,partlytoexplainandpartlytoexcuse,myselftoFrenchreaders。ForinFrancetherehasbeennoorthodoxtraditionwiththesameauthorityovercontemporaryopinionasinmyowncountry。IntheUnitedStatesthepositionhasbeenmuchthesameasinEngland。ButinFrance,asintherestofEurope,therehasbeennosuchdominantschoolsincetheexpiryoftheschoolofFrenchLiberaleconomistswhowereintheirprimetwentyyearsago(thoughtheylivedtosogreatanage,longaftertheirinfluencehadpassedaway,[Pagexxxii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

thatitfelltomyduty,whenIfirstbecameayouthfuleditoroftheEconomicJournaltowritetheobituariesofmanyofthem¾Levasseur,Molinari,Leroy-Beaulieu)。IfCharlesGidehadattainedtothesameinfluenceandauthorityasAlfredMarshall,yourpositionwouldhavebornemoreresemblancetoours。Asitis,youreconomistsareeclectic,toomuch(wesometimesthink)withoutdeeprootsinsystematicthought。PerhapsthismaymakethemmoreeasilyaccessibletowhatIhavetosay。ButitmayalsohavetheresultthatmyreaderswillsometimeswonderwhatIamtalkingaboutwhenIspeak,withwhatsomeofmyEnglishcriticsconsideramisuseoflanguage,ofthe'classical'schoolofthoughtand'classical'economists。

Itmay,therefore,behelpfultomyFrenchreadersifIattempttoindicateverybrieflywhatIregardasthemaindifferentiaeofmyapproach。

Ihavecalledmytheoryageneraltheory。ImeanbythisthatIamchieflyconcernedwiththebehaviouroftheeconomicsystemasawhole,¾withaggregateincomes,aggregateprofits,aggregateoutput,aggregateemployment,aggregateinvestment,aggregatesavingratherthanwiththeincomes,profits,output,employment,investmentandsavingofparticularindustries,firmsorindividuals。AndIarguethatimportantmistakeshavebeenmadethroughextendingtothesystemasawholeconclusionswhichhavebeencorrectlyarrivedatinrespectofapartofittakeninisolation。

LetmegiveexamplesofwhatImean。Mycontentionthatforthesystemasawholetheamountofincomewhichissaved,inthesensethatitisnotspentoncurrentconsumption,isandmustnecessarilybeexactlyequaltotheamountofnetnewinvestmenthasbeenconsideredaparadoxandhasbeentheoccasionofwidespreadcontroversy。Theexplanationofthisisundoubtedlytobefoundinthefactthatthisrelationshipofequalitybetweensavingandinvestment,whichnecessarilyholdsgoodforthesystemasawhole,doesnotholdgoodatallforaparticularindividual。ThereisnoreasonwhateverwhythenewinvestmentforwhichIamresponsibleshouldbearanyrelationwhatevertotheamountofmyownsavings。Qutelegitimatelyweregardanindi-

[Pagexxxiii]PREFACETOTHEFRENCHEDITION

vidual'sincomeasindependentofwhathehimselfconsumesandinvests。

Butthis,Ihavetopointout,shouldnothaveledustooverlookthefactthatthedemandarisingoutoftheconsumptionandinvestmentofoneindividualisthesourceoftheincomesofotherindividuals,sothatincomesingeneralarenotindependent,quitethecontrary,ofthedispositionofindividualstospendandinvest;andsinceinturnthereadinessofindividualstospendandinvestdependsontheirincomes,arelationshipissetupbetweenaggregatesavingsandaggregateinvestmentwhichcanbeveryeasilyshown,beyondanypossibilityofreasonabledispute,tobeoneofexactandnecessaryequality。Rightlyregardedthisisabanaleconclusion。Butitsetsinmotionatrainofthoughtfromwhichmoresubstantialmattersfollow。Itisshownthat,generallyspeaking,theactuallevelofoutputandemploymentdepends,notonthecapacitytoproduceoronthepre-existinglevelofincomes,butonthecurrentdecisionstoproducewhichdependinturnoncurrentdecisionstoinvestandonpresentexpectationsofcurrentandprospectiveconsumption。Moreover,assoonasweknowthepropensitytoconsumeandtosave(asIcallit),thatistosaytheresultforthecommunityasawholeoftheindividualpsychologicalinclinationsastohowtodisposeofgivenincomes,wecancalculatewhatlevelofincomes,andthereforewhatlevelofoutputandemployment,isinprofit-equilibriumwithagivenlevelofnewinvestment;outofwhichdevelopsthedoctrineoftheMultiplier。

Oragain,itbecomesevidentthatanincreasedpropensitytosavewillceterisparibuscontractincomesandoutput;whilstanincreasedinducementtoinvestwillexpandthem。Wearethusabletoanalysethefactorswhichdeterminetheincomeandoutputofthesystemasawhole;¾wehave,inthemostexactsense,atheoryofemployment。Conclusionsemergefromthisreasoningwhichareparticularlyrelevanttotheproblemsofpublicfinanceandpublicpolicygenerallyandofthetradecycle。

Anotherfeature,speciallycharacteristicofthisbook,isthetheoryoftherateofinterest。Inrecenttimesithasbeenheldbymanyeconomiststhattherateofcurrentsavingdetermined[Pagexxxiv]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

thesupplyoffreecapital,thattherateofcurrentinvestmentgovernedthedemandforit,andthattherateofinterestwas,sotospeak,theequilibratingprice-factordeterminedbythepointofintersectionofthesupplycurveofsavingsandthedemandcurveofinvestment。Butifaggregatesavingisnecessarilyandinallcircumstancesexactlyequaltoaggregateinvestment,itisevidentthatthisexplanationcollapses。Wehavetosearchelsewhereforthesolution。Ifinditintheideathatitisthefunctionoftherateofinteresttopreserveequilibrium,notbetweenthedemandandthesupplyofnewcapitalgoods,butbetweenthedemandandthesupplyofmoney,thatistosaybetweenthedemandforliquidityandthemeansofsatisfyingthisdemand。Iamherereturningtothedoctrineoftheolder,pre-nineteenthcenturyeconomists。Montesquieu,forexample,sawthistruthwithconsiderableclarity,[15]¾MontesquieuwhowastherealFrenchequivalentofAdamSmith,thegreatestofyoureconomists,headandshouldersabovethephysiocratsinpenetration,clear-headednessandgoodsense(whicharethequalitiesaneconomistshouldhave)。ButImustleaveittothetextofthisbooktoshowhowindetailallthisworksout。

IhavecalledthisbooktheGeneralTheoryofEmployment,InterestandMoney;andthethirdfeaturetowhichImaycallattentionisthetreatmentofmoneyandprices。ThefollowinganalysisregistersmyfinalescapefromtheconfusionsoftheQuantityTheory,whichonceentangledme。Iregardthepricelevelasawholeasbeingdeterminedinpreciselythesamewayasindividualprices;thatistosay,undertheinfluenceofsupplyanddemand。Technicalconditions,thelevelofwages,theextentofunusedcapacityofplantandlabour,andthestateofmarketsandcompetitiondeterminethesupplyconditionsofindividualproductsandofproductsasawhole。Thedecisionsofentrepreneurs,whichprovidetheincomesofindividualproducersandthedecisionsofthoseindividualsastothedispositionofsuchincomesdeterminethedemandconditions。Andprices¾bothindividualpricesandtheprice-level¾emergeastheresultantofthesetwo[Pagexxxv]PREFACETOTHEFRENCHEDITION

factors。Money,andthequantityofmoney,arenotdirectinfluencesatthisstageoftheproceedings。Theyhavedonetheirworkatanearlierstageoftheanalysis。Thequantityofmoneydeterminesthesupplyofliquidresources,andhencetherateofinterest,andinconjunctionwithotherfactors(particularlythatofconfidence)theinducementtoinvest,whichinturnfixestheequilibriumlevelofincomes,outputandemploymentand(ateachstageinconjunctionwithotherfactors)theprice-levelasawholethroughtheinfluencesofsupplyanddemandthusestablished。

Ibelievethateconomicseverywhereuptorecenttimeshasbeendominated,muchmorethanhasbeenunderstood,bythedoctrinesassociatedwiththenameofJ-B。Say。Itistruethathis'lawofmarkets'hasbeenlongabandonedbymosteconomists;buttheyhavenotextricatedthemselvesfromhisbasicassumptionsandparticularlyfromhisfallacythatdemandiscreatedbysupply。Saywasimplicitlyassumingthattheeconomicsystemwasalwaysoperatinguptoitsfullcapacity,sothatanewactivitywasalwaysinsubstitutionfor,andneverinadditionto,someotheractivity。Nearlyallsubsequenteconomictheoryhasdependedon,inthesensethatithasrequired,thissameassumption。Yetatheorysobasedisclearlyincompetenttotackletheproblemsofunemploymentandofthetradecycle。PerhapsIcanbestexpresstoFrenchreaderswhatIclaimforthisbookbysayingthatinthetheoryofproductionitisafinalbreak-awayfromthedoctrinesofJ-B。SayandthatinthetheoryofinterestitisareturntothedoctrinesofMontesquieu。

J。M。KEYNES

20February1939

King'sCollegeCambridgeTheGeneralTheory[Page3]

Chapter1

THEGENERALTHEORY

IhavecalledthisbooktheGeneralTheoryofEmployment,InterestandMoney,placingtheemphasisontheprefixgeneral。Theobjectofsuchatitleistocontrastthecharacterofmyargumentsandconclusionswiththoseoftheclassical[16]theoryofthesubject,uponwhichIwasbroughtupandwhichdominatestheeconomicthought,bothpracticalandtheoretical,ofthegoverningandacademicclassesofthisgeneration,asithasforahundredyearspast。Ishallarguethatthepostulatesoftheclassicaltheoryareapplicabletoaspecialcaseonlyandnottothegeneralcase,thesituationwhichitassumesbeingalimitingpointofthepossiblepositionsofequilibrium。Moreover,thecharacteristicsofthespecialcaseassumedbytheclassicaltheoryhappennottobethoseoftheeconomicsocietyinwhichweactuallylive,withtheresultthatitsteachingismisleadinganddisastrousifweattempttoapplyittothefactsofexperience。

PostulatesofClassicalEconomics[Page4]

Chapter2

THEPOSTULATESOFTHECLASSICALECONOMICS

Mosttreatisesonthetheoryofvalueandproductionareprimarilyconcernedwiththedistributionofagivenvolumeofemployedresourcesbetweendifferentusesandwiththeconditionswhich,assumingtheemploymentofthisquantityofresources,determinetheirrelativerewardsandtherelativevaluesoftheirproducts。[17]

Thequestion,also,ofthevolumeoftheavailableresources,inthesenseofthesizeoftheemployablepopulation,theextentofnaturalwealthandtheaccumulatedcapitalequipment,hasoftenbeentreateddescriptively。

Butthepuretheoryofwhatdeterminestheactualemploymentoftheavailableresourceshasseldombeenexaminedingreatdetail。Tosaythatithasnotbeenexaminedatallwould,ofcourse,beabsurd。Foreverydiscussionconcerningfluctuationsofemployment,ofwhichtherehavebeenmany,hasbeenconcernedwithit。Imean,notthatthetopichasbeenoverlooked,butthatthefundamentaltheory[Page5]POSTULATES

OFTHECLASSICALECONOMICS

underlyingithasbeendeemedsosimpleandobviousthatithasreceived,atthemost,abaremention。[18]

Theclassicaltheoryofemployment¾supposedlysimpleandobvious¾hasbeenbased,I

think,ontwofundamentalpostulates,thoughpracticallywithoutdiscussion,namely:

I。ThewageisequaltothemarginalproductoflabourThatistosay,thewageofanemployedpersonisequaltothevaluewhichwouldbelostifemploymentweretobereducedbyoneunit(afterdeductinganyothercostswhichthisreductionofoutputwouldavoid);

subject,however,tothequalificationthattheequalitymaybedisturbed,inaccordancewithcertainprinciples,ifcompetitionandmarketsareimperfect。

II。Theutilityofthewagewhenagivenvolumeoflabourisemployedisequaltothemarginaldisutilityofthatamountofemployment。

Thatistosay,therealwageofanemployedpersonisthatwhichisjustsufficient(intheestimationoftheemployedpersonsthemselves)

toinducethevolumeoflabouractuallyemployedtobeforthcoming;subjecttothequalificationthattheequalityforeachindividualunitoflabourmaybedisturbedbycombinationbetweenemployableunitsanalogoustotheimperfections[Page6]THEGENERAL

THEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

ofcompetitionwhichqualifythefirstpostulate。Disutilitymustbehereunderstoodtocovereverykindofreasonwhichmightleadaman,orabodyofmen,towithholdtheirlabourratherthanacceptawagewhichhadtothemautilitybelowacertainminimum。

Thispostulateiscompatiblewithwhatmaybecalled'frictional'unemployment。

Forarealisticinterpretationofitlegitimatelyallowsforvariousinexactnessesofadjustmentwhichstandinthewayofcontinuousfullemployment:forexample,unemploymentduetoatemporarywantofbalancebetweentherelativequantitiesofspecialisedresourcesasaresultofmiscalculationorintermittentdemand;ortotime-lagsconsequentonunforeseenchanges;ortothefactthatthechange-overfromoneemploymenttoanothercannotbeeffectedwithoutacertaindelay,sothattherewillalwaysexistinanon-staticsocietyaproportionofresourcesunemployed'betweenjobs'。Inadditionto'frictional'unemployment,thepostulateisalsocompatiblewith'voluntary'

unemploymentduetotherefusalorinabilityofaunitoflabour,asaresultoflegislationorsocialpracticesorofcombinationforcollectivebargainingorofslowresponsetochangeorofmerehumanobstinacy,toacceptarewardcorrespondingtothevalueoftheproductattributabletoitsmarginalproductivity。Butthesetwocategoriesof'frictional'

unemploymentand'voluntary'unemploymentarecomprehensive。Theclassicalpostulatesdonotadmitofthepossibilityofthethirdcategory,whichIshalldefinebelowas'involuntary'unemployment。

Subjecttothesequalifications,thevolumeofemployedresourcesisdulydetermined,accordingtotheclassicaltheory,bythetwopostulates。

Thefirstgivesusthedemandscheduleforemployment,thesecondgivesusthesupplyschedule;andtheamountofemploymentisfixedatthepointwheretheutilityofthemarginalproductbalancesthedisutilityofthemarginalemployment。

[Page7]POSTULATES

OFTHECLASSICALECONOMICS

Itwouldfollowfromthisthatthereareonlyfourpossiblemeansofincreasingemployment:

(a)Animprovementinorganisationorinforesightwhichdiminishes'frictional'unemployment;

(b)adecreaseinthemarginaldisutilityoflabour,asexpressedbytherealwageforwhichadditionallabourisavailable,soastodiminish'voluntary'unemployment;

(c)anincreaseinthemarginalphysicalproductivityoflabourinthewage-goodsindustries(touseProfessorPigou'sconvenienttermforgoodsuponthepriceofwhichtheutilityofthemoney-wagedepends);

or(d)anincreaseinthepriceofnon-wage-goodscomparedwiththepriceofwage-goods,associatedwithashiftintheexpenditureofnon-wage-earnersfromwage-goodstonon-wage-goods。

This,tothebestofmyunderstanding,isthesubstanceofProfessorPigou'sTheoryofUnemployment¾theonlydetailedaccountoftheclassicaltheoryofemploymentwhichexists。

[19]

II

Isittruethattheabovecategoriesarecomprehensiveinviewofthefactthatthepopulationgenerallyisseldomdoingasmuchworkasitwouldliketodoonthebasisofthecurrentwage?For,admittedly,morelabourwould,asarule,beforthcomingattheexistingmoney-wageifitweredemanded。[20]Theclassicalschoolreconcilethisphenomenonwiththeirsecondpostulatebyarguingthat,whilethedemandforlabour[Page8]THEGENERAL

THEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

attheexistingmoney-wagemaybesatisfiedbeforeeveryonewillingtoworkatthiswageisemployed,thissituationisduetoanopenortacitagreementamongstworkersnottoworkforless,andthatiflabourasawholewouldagreetoareductionofmoney-wagesmoreemploymentwouldbeforthcoming。Ifthisisthecase,suchunemployment,thoughapparentlyinvoluntary,isnotstrictlyso,andoughttobeincludedundertheabovecategoryof'voluntary'unemploymentduetotheeffectsofcollectivebargaining,etc。

Thiscallsfortwoobservations,thefirstofwhichrelatestotheactualattitudeofworkerstowardsrealwagesandmoney-wagesrespectivelyandisnottheoreticallyfundamental,butthesecondofwhichisfundamental。

Letusassume,forthemoment,thatlabourisnotpreparedtoworkforalowermoney-wageandthatareductionintheexistinglevelofmoney-wageswouldlead,throughstrikesorotherwise,toawithdrawalfromthelabourmarketoflabourwhichisnowemployed。Doesitfollowfromthisthattheexistinglevelofrealwagesaccuratelymeasuresthemarginaldisutilityoflabour?Notnecessarily。For,althoughareductionintheexistingmoney-wagewouldleadtoawithdrawaloflabour,itdoesnotfollowthatafallinthevalueoftheexistingmoney-wageintermsofwage-goodswoulddoso,ifitwereduetoariseinthepriceofthelatter。Inotherwords,itmaybethecasethatwithinacertainrangethedemandoflabourisforaminimummoney-wageandnotforaminimumrealwage。Theclassicalschoolhavetacitlyassumedthatthiswouldinvolvenosignificantchangeintheirtheory。Butthisisnotso。Forifthesupplyoflabourisnotafunctionofrealwagesasitssolevariable,theirargumentbreaksdownentirelyandleavesthequestionofwhattheactualemploymentwillbequiteindeterminate。

[21]Theydonotseemtohaverealisedthat,unlessthesupplyoflabourisafunctionofrealwagesalone,[Page9]POSTULATES

OFTHECLASSICALECONOMICS

theirsupplycurveforlabourwillshiftbodilywitheverymovementofprices。Thustheirmethodistiedupwiththeirveryspecialassumptions,andcannotbeadaptedtodealwiththemoregeneralcase。

Nowordinaryexperiencetellsus,beyonddoubt,thatasituationwherelabourstipulates(withinlimits)foramoney-wageratherthanarealwage,sofarfrombeingamerepossibility,isthenormalcase。Whilstworkerswillusuallyresistareductionofmoney-wages,itisnottheirpracticetowithdrawtheirlabourwheneverthereisariseinthepriceofwage-goods。

Itissometimessaidthatitwouldbeillogicalforlabourtoresistareductionofmoney-wagesbutnottoresistareductionofrealwages。Forreasonsgivenbelow(p。14),thismightnotbesoillogicalasitappearsatfirst;and,asweshallseelater,fortunatelyso。But,whetherlogicalorillogical,experienceshowsthatthisishowlabourinfactbehaves。

Moreover,thecontentionthattheunemploymentwhichcharacterisesadepressionisduetoarefusalbylabourtoacceptareductionofmoney-wagesisnotclearlysupportedbythefacts。ItisnotveryplausibletoassertthatunemploymentintheUnitedStatesin1932wasdueeithertolabourobstinatelyrefusingtoacceptareductionofmoney-wagesortoitsobstinatelydemandingarealwagebeyondwhattheproductivityoftheeconomicmachinewascapableoffurnishing。Widevariationsareexperiencedinthevolumeofemploymentwithoutanyapparentchangeeitherintheminimumrealdemandsoflabourorinitsproductivity。Labourisnotmoretruculentinthedepressionthanintheboom¾farfromit。Norisitsphysicalproductivityless。Thesefactsfromexperienceareaprimafaciegroundforquestioningtheadequacyoftheclassicalanalysis。

It[22]wouldbeinterestingtoseetheresultsofastatisticalenquiryintotheactualrelationshipbetween[Page10]THEGENERAL

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